Generative AI and Covid-19 similarities + Reactions to FL's new gun law
By Zoe and Andrew
Over coffee last week, Zoe told me that a piece by Ezra Klein got her thinking more about the similarities between Generative AI and Covid-19. Here is what she means:
The similarities demonstrate the impacts of short-termism.
In Florida…
Yesterday, the Governor of Florida quietly - because it was unpopular - signed into law a bill that will allow Floridians to carry concealed weapons without a permit or training. Florida becomes the 26th state to do so. Interestingly, the bill also included school “safety” provisions.
First, some context on how gun violence impacts kids in Florida. According to Everytown, firearms are the 2nd-leading cause of death among children and teens in Florida. On average 185 children and teens die by guns every year in Florida, and 67% of these deaths are homicides. The overwhelming majority of these deaths happen outside of schools.
Three reactions: 1) the evidence of a relationship between permitless-carry laws and gun violence is nascent and mixed, but there are troubling signs; 2) firearm training makes sense, and the lack of training totally undercuts the argument that more good guys with guns…; and 3) the school “safety” provisions fit a paradigm that has failed our kids for over a decade.
One analysis of studies by the Rand Corporation early this year found that evidence of a relationship between permitless-carry laws and gun violence was inconclusive. But, the data in Arizona and Wisconsin, early states to adopt permitless carry, tell a different story. And a working paper in NBER asserts that states that have adopted permitless carry have experienced a 13-15 percent increase in violent crime rates.
Forget driving or boating training - which are good comparisons to firearm training given the associated risks to life and limb, let’s consider an even safer set of disciplines, where on average, less than one person is killed annually. According to the National Occupational Licensing database, states require “1,551 hours of training to obtain a license to cut hair, 500 hours of training to obtain a massage therapist license, and 377 hours of training to become a licensed manicurist.” Of course, there are too many training regulations for these professions, but having none doesn’t make sense either. If you have loaded, shot or cleaned a gun - we have - then you know it just makes sense to have training. Requiring no training also doesn’t square with public opinion. Finally, individuals are much more likely to respond effectively in an emergency with firearm training. Isn’t that the rationale for permitless carry?
Instead focusing on preventing child deaths from guns where they most often occur - outside of school - the bill included a number of dubious school “safety” provisions. They include:
The creation of a standardized school threat assessment tool,
Expansion of the state’s armed guardian program into private schools,
A requirement that all law enforcement agencies have active assailant response strategies, and
The establishment of a school firearm detection dog program.These provisions certainly aren’t about learning or school culture, they aren’t really even about safety - they are about politics. They fall within the paradigm of hardening schools via physical defenses. There is no conclusive evidence that any of these safety measures prevent or mitigate school violence and there is evidence that these measures make kids feel less safe. This clause illuminates the precariousness of these provisions: “Firearm detection canines act as liaisons between students and law enforcement agencies and serve as ambassadors for a law enforcement agency to improve community engagement.”We’re open to anything that will protect our kids, but this seems like utter nonsense. Florida’s kids deserve way better.